Is the Tide Turning in Texas?

By Jeffrey Boney

What in the world is happening in Texas?

For years, the consistent narrative has been that the state of Texas is solidly “red” — and getting redder by the minute.

After the controversial mid-decade redistricting bill, which was signed into law last year, many Texas Democrats believed the “red” hole had only gotten deeper. Lines were redrawn. Maps were reconfigured. Several traditional congressional districts had been consolidated. And yet, just when it seemed as if Texas Democrats were bracing for another cycle of political setbacks, something unexpected happened.

A warning shot was heard. Maybe even the early signs of a serious political shift in the Lone Star State.

This past Saturday, January 31, union leader Taylor Rehmet (TX-D) sent shockwaves across Texas by defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss to become the new State Senator for Texas Senate District 9.

Let’s be clear — this wasn’t just a win. It was a political shocker.

President Donald Trump carried this very district by 17 points in the November 2024 presidential election. Rehmet’s victory represents a roughly 31-point swing in voter sentiment in a little over a year. Even more significant, Texas Senate District 9 had been represented by a Republican for more than 30 years. Three decades of political consistency flipped with one election, in a single special election.

That doesn’t happen by accident.

The vacancy occurred after former Texas Senator Kelly Hancock (TX-R) was appointed Texas Comptroller, leaving the seat open. Texas Republicans had little reason to believe the district was vulnerable. In fact, it was widely assumed that this was a strong hold congressional district — that this was merely a procedural election more than a competitive one.

But Rehmet didn’t just make it competitive or barely win. He won convincingly.

Now, Texas Republican leaders and operatives are scrambling for explanations. Some have pointed to low voter turnout, a common refrain when special elections produce uncomfortable outcomes. And yes, turnout in special elections is typically lower than in general elections. That’s not new.

What is new is the significance of this victory and of this potential shift.

Low voter turnout does not automatically explain away a 31-point swing. If anything, it suggests intensity — that those motivated enough to show up were sending a clear message. And that message may be less about political affiliations and party labels, but more about performance, priorities, and public sentiment.

The question isn’t simply whether Democrats won a seat. The bigger question is — are voters recalibrating their relationship with the Republican Party and its leadership in Texas?

Let’s not sugarcoat this — voter sentiment toward President Trump and Texas Governor Greg Abbott are playing a role in every race now, even down-ballot contests.

Governor Abbott’s aggressive mid-decade redistricting push — heavily encouraged by President Trump — was designed to solidify Republican dominance ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. After a dramatic legislative standoff that saw Texas Democrats break quorum and leave the state in protest, House Bill 4 was ultimately signed into law on August 29, 2025, following a second special session. The bill became effective January 1 of this year.

The strategy was clear — redraw the lines, fortify traditional Republican strongholds, and weaken competitive congressional districts — particularly majority-minority congressional districts like the 9th and 18th.

It was a bold play and a seemingly effective move — on paper.

But bold plays can also have unintended consequences.

When voters perceive overreach — whether procedural, ideological, or political — they often respond in ways that defy conventional wisdom. Texas has long been seen as reliably “red” at the statewide level. Yet beneath that surface is a rapidly diversifying electorate, newer and shifting suburbs, energized labor groups, disenchanted minorities (especially Latinos), and younger voters who are increasingly less predictable.

This all brings us back to Taylor Rehmet.

Who is he?

Rehmet is not a career politician. He is the first rank-and-file union member ever elected to the Texas Senate. A union president and military veteran, he was born and raised in Garland, Texas, as part of a working-class family. His father was an aircraft mechanic and his mother worked in a local salon. He learned early on about hard work — serving as a plumber’s assistant, working on a horse ranch, and eventually joining the U.S. Air Force.

After his military service, Rehmet returned home and became a machinist, applying the technical skills he learned in uniform. His journey into labor organizing wasn’t theoretical — it was personal. He rose to serve as president of both his local and state chapters of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.

According to his campaign, he ran because he believed state leadership was ignoring everyday Texans — veterans, working families, public school parents, and communities struggling with housing affordability. His platform focused on fully funding public education, protecting veterans, investing in affordable housing, and prioritizing workers.

That message clearly resonated with voters.

But this election may be about more than Rehmet’s biography.

It may reflect frustration.

It may reflect fatigue.

It may reflect voters who feel that culture wars and partisan theatrics are overshadowing kitchen-table issues like rising property values and taxes, school vouchers and public education funding, power grid reliability, the inequity of healthcare access, and economic stability.

If that’s the case, the implications extend far beyond Texas Senate District 9.

Nationally, Republicans have relied on Texas as a blueprint — a state that anchors electoral math and reinforces conservative policy dominance. If suburban districts begin to soften, like Texas Senate District 9, it complicates Republicans overall strategy, not just for Governor Abbott, but for President Trump and the entire national Republican leadership heading into the 2026 general election.

Now, let’s be real… Is Texas turning blue overnight? Maybe not.

One special election, with low voter turnout, does not flip a state like Texas.

However, it seems to signal momentum.

It reveals to both major political parties that no district is a guarantee — it is only temporarily entrusted to that party based on how they perform and deliver for the people.

Rehmet will serve through December 2026, finishing out the current term. Voters will head back to the polls on November 3, 2026, to decide who will represent Senate District 9 for a full term running from January 2027 through December 2030.

Between now and then, both political parties will be watching closely.

Republicans will test whether this was just a one-time situation, driven by turnout dynamics. Democrats will attempt to copy and paste this formula in similar districts across the state. And voters — perhaps more than anyone — will decide whether this moment was a moment in time, or the beginning of something bigger.

So again, what in the world is happening in Texas?

Is the tide turning?

We may be witnessing something subtle but significant — a reminder that political power, even in the Lone Star State, is never as permanent as it appears.

Jeffrey L. Boney is a Houston-area media professional and former four-term Missouri City Councilmember with a background in banking and business development. He leads multiple business ventures and writes on public policy, politics, and community affairs.