We’ve Won the Iran Conflict, Trump Reassures Americans Even as More Troops Are Deployed to Middle East

By Sunita Sohrabji

“Take the Strait,” President Donald Trump asserted to countries whose supply of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a prime-time speech April 1 evening, President Donald Trump said he would end the war with Iran within 2 to 3 weeks. (White House livestream screen grab)

President Donald Trump appeared before the nation April 1 evening, reassuring Americans that his objectives for the conflict with Iran had been met and that the war would conclude within 2 to 3 weeks.

“We have crippled Iran and denied them the ability to make a nuclear bomb. They were so close to producing a nuclear weapon like no one’s ever seen before,” said the President in a 19-minute speech, one of the shortest of his tenure. Trump noted that Iran’s naval bases have been annihilated, and its “murderous, thuggish regime” has been toppled.

”We’ve been in this military operation for 32 days, and Iran has been eviscerated. We are on the cusp of ending Iran’s threat to America and to the world. We are close to ending this war,” he said.

Iran has stockpiled almost 441 kilograms of highly enriched uranium at 60% purity, which could easily be converted to 90% weapons grade. About 20-25 kilograms of HEU at 90% purity are needed for a nuclear bomb, notes the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Prolonged battle?

The Administration’s actions however, hint at a much longer time frame for the conflict. Last month, the Pentagon asked the White House for an additional $200 billion to support its efforts in Iran. For perspective, $11 billion was spent by the US during the first 3 weeks of the war.

Aa additional 5,000 troops been deployed to the Middle East last month, also suggesting a ratcheting up for prolonged battle.

But the President’s most damning statement’s were addressed to world leaders, who have largely been reluctant to enter the conflict. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply passes and thus has crippled the global economy — was inconsequential to the US, he said.

’Take the Strait’

”We don’t need their oil. We have so much gas. We produce more gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined,” he said, referring to his signature “Drill, Baby, Drill,” initiative and his control of Venezuelan oil. Gas prices have nevertheless risen to $6 per gallon in many parts of the US.

”We don’t need oil through the Strait of Hormuz. But countries that do must get involved,” stated Trump, adding: “Take the Strait.”

”Or buy oil from us,” he added.

No exit plan

Trump was long on optimism, but short on strategy in his prime-time address. In an interview with American Community Media before the President’s speech, Dr. William Beeman, Professor Emeritus of Anthropology at the University of Minnesota and a well-known expert on the Middle East said the war will not end in 2-3 weeks. “Trump is blowing smoke. He wants to give the American public the impression that we’ve won.”

Who will lead?

Beeman pointed out the lack of plan for who might replace the current regime. The global Iranian diaspora, he said, are hoping Trump will topple the religious regime so that “they can walk in and pick up the pieces.” Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last Shah, has closely aligned himself with Israel, with the hopes of promoting a friendly change of regime.

The Mujahedeen, along with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps — which currently serves as the de-facto government after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — will also battle Royal loyalists to lead the country, said Beeman.

“These are the same dynamics we were facing 47 years ago,” after Shah Mohamed Reza Pahlavi was toppled, said Beeman.

He added that the US should return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement developed during the Obama Administration. The JCPOA limited sanctions against Iran in exchange for guaranteeing the country would halt its nuclear ambitions.

But Beeman was pessimistic that Trump would restore the agreement. He was also pessimistic that Trump would allow a mediator in the peace process. “He wants to take the credit for himself,” he said. Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have offered to mediate the conflict.

” The Iranians are saying there’s been no diplomatic progress. They are holding tight on closing the Strait of Hormuz and they are prepared to outlast anything Trump does,” said Beeman.